Monsoon to reach Kerala on May 31 forecasts IMD
This year, monsoon may hit Kerala a day before the normal date. According to the Meteorological Department, monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on May 31. However, the normal date of arrival of monsoon in Kerala is June 1. The Meteorological Department released this estimate late on Wednesday night. There is a possibility of 4 days more or less in the announced date. That means monsoon can arrive anytime between 28th May to 3rd June.
According to the department, the monsoon is likely to reach the Andaman Sea and the islands in the Bay of Bengal two days earlier, i.e. on May 19, instead of the normal date of arrival which is May 21. Last year too, monsoon had arrived in Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 19, but reached Kerala 9 days late on June 8.
Monsoon reached Kerala on June 8 last year
According to IMD data, the dates of arrival of monsoon in Kerala have been quite different in the last 150 years. In 1918, the monsoon reached Kerala the earliest on 11 May, whereas in 1972, it reached Kerala most late on 18 June. Talking about the last four years, in 2020 the monsoon reached Kerala on June 1, in 2021 on June 3, in 2022 on May 29 and in 2023 on June 8.
This time good rain is expected due to La Nina
There are two climate patterns, El Nino and La Nina. Last year, El Nino was active, whereas this time the El Nino conditions have ended this week and there is a possibility that La Nina conditions will arise in three to five weeks. Last year, during El Nino, there was 94% less rainfall than normal. During La Nina triple dip from 2020 to 2022, there was 109%, 99% and 106% rainfall.
What are La Nina and El Nino?
El Nino: In this the sea temperature increases by 3 to 4 degrees. Its effect occurs twice in 10 years. Due to its effect, there is less rainfall in areas with more rainfall and more rainfall in areas with less rainfall.
La Nina: In this the sea water cools rapidly. It affects the weather around the world. The sky is cloudy and it rains heavily.