First advance estimates of national income, 2023-24

2.         Estimates of Gross/ Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditure Components of GDP for the years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

3.         Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of ₹171.79 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.06 lakh crore, released on 31^st May, 2023. The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3 per cent as compared to 7.2 per cent in 2022-23.

4.         Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at ₹296.58 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹272.41 lakh crore, released on 31^st May, 2023. The growth in nominal GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.9 per cent as compared to 16.1 per cent in 2022-23.

5.         The Advance Estimates of National Income are indicator-based and are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2022-23) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. Data sourced from various Ministries/ Departments/ Private Agencies serve as valuable inputs in the compilation of these estimates. The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available for Q1 and Q2 of 2023-24, (iii) Crop production targets and First Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2023-24, (iv) Production targets and summer season production estimates of Major Livestock Products for 2023-24 and (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for first 6-8 months of the financial year 2023-24. Percentage changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.

6.         The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. The Budget Estimates of tax revenue for 2023-24 along with latest information available on the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at current prices. For obtaining taxes on products at constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States up to November, 2023 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/ State-wise BE provision for 2023-24. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. based on detailed analysis of budget documents of Centre and States for 2023-24 were put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

7.         However, these are early projections for 2023-24. Improved data coverage, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies, data revisions made by source agencies etc. would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. The First Revised Estimates for 2022-23 (benchmark year), due for release on 29.02.2024, may also lead to revision in growth rates reflected in FAE. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration while interpreting the figures.

8.         The Second Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2023-24 and quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December, 2023 (Q3 2023-24), along with First, Second and Third Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the years 2022-23, 2021-22 and 2020-21 respectively will be released on 29.02.2024.