IIT study forecasts when will Omicron wave peak in India
The havoc of the third wave of corona in India could reach its peak in the next two weeks i.e. 14 days. Scientists of IIT Madras have expressed this opinion in one of their reports. According to the report, the rate of spread of corona infection in the country ‘R Value’ has further reduced to 1.57 between January 14 and 21. That is, there is a possibility of Covid-19 infection from two people to three people. With further decline in this, the peak of the third wave will come. The R-value (R0) shows how many people a COVID positive patient can infect. If this rate drops below 1 then it is considered that the pandemic situation is over.
According to the IIT Madras report, the R value was recorded at 1.57 between January 14 and 21, 2.2 between January 7 and 13, four between January 1 and 6 and 2.9 between December 25 and 31. This estimate has been made through computational modeling by the Maths and Center of Excellence for Computational Mathematics and Data Science at IIT Madras, led by Professor Nilesh S Upadhyay and Professor S Sundar. Mumbai’s R-value is 0.67, Delhi’s R-value is 0.98, Chennai’s R-value is 1.2 and Kolkata’s R-value is 0.56.
Dr. Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor of Mathematics at IIT Madras, said that the R value of Mumbai and Kolkata shows that the peak of the third wave is over there. In Delhi and Chennai it is still close to 1. One reason for this is that according to the new guidelines of ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research), the mandatory to trace people who came in contact with the infected has been abolished. Fewer cases of pandemic infection are being reported than before.
